Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:41:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52d3…df21 sports 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$68 (+2%) realized +$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%24W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$94
14 days+$94
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$448
other 28% −$431
world 8% −$33
finance 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -2.8% -12.0% 55% 52% -6.3%
≤30d 33 -3.9% -13.1% 55% 52% -5.4%
≤90d 37 -10.4% -18.9% 49% 46% -9.4%
all 49 -8.0% -16.8% 49% 47% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 47% -10.2%
10% -24.7% 43% -18.8%
15% -32.0% 39% -26.6%
20% -38.7% 29% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$46 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses24 / 25
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage107d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$32 +156%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 +$6 +88%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$49 +48%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$38 -38%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $50 +$30 +60%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$17 +84%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$15 +48%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$16 -78%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$23 +45%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 +$22 +86%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$52 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$39 -78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $202 −$159 -78%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $92 −$35 -39%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $705 +$547 +78%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $266 +$31 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $8 +$5 +68%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $76 −$40 -53%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 +$2 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 +$9 +54%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $38 −$27 -72%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $21 −$14 -68%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $321 −$319 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 13 $101 +$80 +79%
Will Felix Auger-Aliassime win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 03 $72 −$58 -80%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $276 +$100 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 21 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $92 −$44 -48%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 20 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Mar 19 $56 −$2 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 19 $33 −$10 -31%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 19 $10 −$9 -87%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Mar 19 $81 −$56 -70%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 17 $26 +$14 +52%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10? Mar 09 $10 +$9 +85%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? Mar 09 $13 +$7 +56%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $20 +$13 +65%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 07 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $14 +$3 +22%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 03 $47 +$7 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $24 5m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 10m
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $27 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 1h
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $20 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $52 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $12 2h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $20 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $6 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $150 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $63 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 5h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $79 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $37 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $45 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $30 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $4 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $75 25h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $50 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $21 39h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $25 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $53 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Over 16¢ $7 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.25 · official $24.75 (match) · 140 history records