Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
52 0x52d8…100d sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,704 (+21%) realized +$5,691 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%19W / 41L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$344est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,146
7 days+$5,139
14 days+$5,139
30 days+$5,139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$7,533
other 14% −$2,178
crypto 1% −$203
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -1.6% -10.9% 32% 32% +8.4%
≤30d 60 -1.6% -10.9% 32% 32% +8.4%
≤90d 60 -1.6% -10.9% 32% 32% +8.4%
all 60 -1.6% -10.9% 32% 32% +8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 32% +8.4%
10% -19.5% 32% -2.0%
15% -27.2% 28% -11.4%
20% -34.4% 25% -20.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$508) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$766 vs −$230 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,493
Realized+$5,691
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses19 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$344
Open positions4
Markets (closed)60 / 64
History coverage8d
Avg bet$429
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $1,000 $990 −$10 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $300 $323 +$23 (+8%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $80 $84 +$4 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $31 +$157 +510%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $511 +$1,489 +291%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2,032 +$2,279 +112%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $2,030 −$2,000 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $307 −$307 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $912 −$881 -96%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 21 $82 −$82 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 21 $814 −$814 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $62 +$438 +712%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2,020 +$1,010 +50%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $508 +$556 +109%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $3,031 +$1,515 +50%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,519 +$1,112 +73%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,010 −$981 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,431 +$836 +34%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $112 −$112 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 −$131 -64%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,021 +$2,205 +216%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $202 +$65 +32%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $2,031 +$2,051 +101%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $202 −$202 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 18 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 18 $203 −$203 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $304 −$304 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 9¢ $82 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1,016 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,015 4h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $2,030 16h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 18h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $62 18h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 19h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $307 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2,020 22h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $62 23h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 23h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $814 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $511 23h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2,032 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 4¢ $32 43h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $508 44h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $101 45h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $811 46h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Australia 2¢ $30 46h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3,031 46h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $82 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $104 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1,519 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $1,010 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,103 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1,215 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,492.76 · official $1,492.76 (match) · 146 history records