Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52d8…99ae other 375 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$31,037 (-7%) realized −$26,593 · open −$4,444
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate84%298W / 58L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,125per market
Trades / day80.1pace
Fees−$1,351est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$34,618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,908
7 days+$17,457
14 days−$20,628
30 days−$16,759
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$13,036
sports 30% −$20,278
world 5% −$16,251
crypto 4% +$3,948
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +32.1% +19.5% 62% 58% +15.7%
≤30d 211 +0.3% -9.3% 80% 24% -14.5%
≤90d 356 +0.1% -9.5% 84% 20% -13.2%
all 356 +0.1% -9.5% 84% 20% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 20% -13.2%
10% -18.1% 18% -21.5%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 15% -29.1%
20% -33.3% 12% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$893) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$334 vs −$1,978 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$34,618
Realized−$26,593
Unrealized−$4,444
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses298 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1,351
Open positions16
Markets (closed)356 / 375
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$1,125
Trades / day80.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 84¢ 74¢ $18,520 $16,390 −$2,130 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 93¢ $3,286 $3,239 −$47 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,707 $2,778 +$72 (+3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3,584 $2,645 −$939 (-26%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $2,352 $2,216 −$137 (-6%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? No 23¢ 22¢ $2,131 $2,085 −$46 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,600 $1,300 −$1,300 (-50%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,000 $1,250 +$250 (+25%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $1,040 $972 −$67 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $220 $450 +$230 (+105%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $500 $410 −$90 (-18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $320 $250 −$70 (-22%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $320 $250 −$70 (-22%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $220 $170 −$50 (-23%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $160 $110 −$50 (-31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $102 $102 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $4,687 −$1,727 -37%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $14,200 +$5,800 +41%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $5,919 −$5,774 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $2,527 +$518 +20%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $380 +$120 +32%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $2,378 +$2,797 +118%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $1,371 +$629 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $524 −$524 -100%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $420 +$156 +37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $288 −$288 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5,874 +$1,203 +20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $737 −$737 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,937 +$1,402 +72%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $140 −$80 -57%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 26 $3,982 +$18 +0%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $2,969 +$1,155 +39%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $429 −$429 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,416 +$4,523 +187%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,938 +$4,057 +138%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11,069 −$1,069 -10%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $2,249 +$1,994 +89%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $73 +$539 +733%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,772 +$1,628 +59%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $147 −$147 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $73 −$73 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $2,163 +$1,769 +82%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $12,532 +$6,456 +52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $147 +$240 +163%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4,696 −$4,696 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $999 +$695 +70%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $3,382 +$3,000 +89%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,995 +$1,031 +52%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 21 $73 −$73 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $147 −$147 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 21 $172 −$165 -96%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $594 −$594 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $2,958 −$2,958 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 21 $8,141 −$8,141 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2,662 −$2,662 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 21 $3,529 −$3,529 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $10,042 −$10,042 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 21 $3,870 −$3,870 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $480 −$240 -50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 21 $14,806 −$14,806 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 71¢ $431 10m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 71¢ $548 10m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 71¢ $2 10m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 71¢ $273 10m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 71¢ $9 10m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 71¢ $4 10m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 71¢ $48 10m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 71¢ $81 10m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 71¢ $24 10m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $187 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $79 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,052 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 85¢ $8,538 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $425 2h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $914 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $670 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $8 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $27 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $18 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $16 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $9 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $6 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $1,464 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $7 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $4,000 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $6 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $43 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $1 3h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $2,278 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34,617.86 · official $34,617.86 (match) · 3500 history records