Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52dd…340d crypto 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$307 (-5%) realized −$307 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%93W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$405
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 85 -14.3% -22.5% 64% 45% -16.1%
all 153 -16.3% -24.3% 61% 39% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 39% -16.3%
10% -31.5% 22% -24.3%
15% -38.2% 9% -31.6%
20% -44.2% 3% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$307
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses93 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)153 / 153
History coverage107d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 153 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 11 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 11 $33 −$11 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 11 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Apr 02 $60 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Apr 02 $123 −$119 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 02 $267 +$24 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 02 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 02 $402 −$169 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 02 $127 +$59 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 02 $231 +$21 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 02 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Apr 02 $138 +$14 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 31 $200 −$100 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 31 $95 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 31 $92 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 31 $79 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 31 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 29 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 29 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 29 $130 +$18 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 29 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 29 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 29 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 29 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 29 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Mar 29 $90 −$67 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 29 $25 +$19 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 29 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 28 $30 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 28 $30 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 28 $130 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 28 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 28 $37 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 28 $272 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 28 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 28 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 27 $60 −$50 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 27 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Mar 27 $76 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Mar 27 $30 +$8 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Mar 27 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Mar 27 $232 +$40 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Mar 27 $66 +$14 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 27 $20 +$4 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $12 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $15 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $8 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $13 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $27 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $123 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $59 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $50 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $118 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $114 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $45 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $4 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $14 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $4 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $14 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $30 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 74d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $4 74d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $219 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $222 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $184 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $185 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 545 history records