trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 12 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $37 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 10 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 10 | $53 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? | Mar 21 | $41 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? | Mar 18 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 15 | $57 | $0 | +0% |
| USA wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? | Mar 14 | $57 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14? | Mar 13 | $56 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in February? | Mar 13 | $63 | +$34 | +54% |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 20 | Mar 12 | $26 | −$26 | -100% |
| Will Trump issue an executive order on March 5? | Mar 11 | $33 | +$30 | +89% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez applaud during Trump's address to Congre | Mar 04 | $33 | $0 | +1% |
| Arizona State vs. Arizona | Mar 04 | $60 | −$1 | -2% |
| North Carolina vs. Florida State | Mar 04 | $34 | +$26 | +79% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 20 | +6.6% | -3.6% | 60% | 15% | -0.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.6% | 15% | -0.8% |
| 10% | -12.8% | 15% | -10.3% |
| 15% | -21.2% | 15% | -19.0% |
| 20% | -28.9% | 15% | -26.9% |