Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
52 0x52e0…1a1a other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 26d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$305 (+7%) realized +$130 · open +$175
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$4,186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$226
sports 6% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +109.7% +89.8% 100% 100% +89.3%
≤30d 4 +48.7% +34.6% 75% 75% +56.5%
≤90d 4 +48.7% +34.6% 75% 75% +56.5%
all 4 +48.7% +34.6% 75% 75% +56.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.6% 75% +56.5%
10% +21.7% 75% +41.6%
15% +9.9% 75% +27.9%
20% -0.8% 75% +15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +73% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$29 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.62 per $1 lost it wins $7.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$4,186
Realized+$130
Unrealized+$175
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 14
History coverage26d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1,000 $1,171 +$171 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1,000 $1,103 +$103 (+10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $891 $980 +$89 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,000 $815 −$185 (-19%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 59¢ 60¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $58 +$67 +114%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $73 +$77 +106%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $103 +$77 +75%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $30 −$29 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,185.68 · official $4,185.68 (match) · 44 history records