Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:17:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52e4…1b08 sports 89 markets active 12h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$251 (-24%) realized −$251 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%40W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$54
14 days−$285
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$286
other 4% −$5
politics 3% +$4
economics 1% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -12.3% -20.6% 51% 49% -18.6%
≤30d 89 -20.3% -27.9% 45% 43% -35.7%
≤90d 89 -20.3% -27.9% 45% 43% -35.7%
all 89 -20.3% -27.9% 45% 43% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 43% -35.7%
10% -34.8% 42% -41.9%
15% -41.1% 35% -47.5%
20% -46.9% 24% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$251
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses40 / 49
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage11d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$3 +40%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$3 +40%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$2 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +112%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $7 +$3 +48%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $6 +$4 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$12 -97%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$10 +137%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$3 +46%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $7 +$2 +34%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$12 -97%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $14 +$8 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$7 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6 +$5 +88%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$7 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $34 +$4 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$6 +79%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $14 −$14 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $23 −$22 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$4 -24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$5 +74%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $8 +$10 +126%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 +$4 +53%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7 +$4 +56%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$3 +48%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$3 +50%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 +$3 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 +$3 +46%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $8 +$8 +95%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $9 +$3 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $25 11h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 11h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 30¢ $8 11h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 77¢ $7 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $8 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 70¢ $7 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $10 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 72¢ $7 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 70¢ $8 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 47¢ $6 4d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Eintracht Spandau 61¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 66¢ $7 4d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C SELL G2 NORD 100¢ $9 4d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 65¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 69¢ $7 4d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 74¢ $5 4d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 74¢ $2 4d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 42¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $7 5d
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner SELL Misa Esports 100¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $7 5d
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner BUY Misa Esports 74¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $22 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $7 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.90 · official $17.90 (match) · 187 history records