Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

52
0x52eb…67ac
weather · 538 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,923 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,073 · open −$4,306
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,462
Realized−$1,073
Unrealized−$4,306
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses200 / 200
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions273
Markets (closed)400 / 538
History coverage5d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day628.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 273 History 400 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$977
7 days−$1,073
14 days−$1,073
30 days−$1,073
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $1,241 $735 −$506 (-41%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $391 $270 −$120 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? No 67¢ 100¢ $168 $250 +$82 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June 12? No 83¢ 100¢ $207 $250 +$42 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on June 12? No 80¢ 100¢ $195 $243 +$49 (+25%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $377 $209 −$168 (-45%)
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 63¢ $177 $155 −$22 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? No 64¢ 60¢ $160 $151 −$9 (-5%)
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? No 81¢ 68¢ $163 $136 −$27 (-17%)
Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $290 $136 −$154 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? No 71¢ 66¢ $143 $133 −$10 (-7%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $126 $127 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $205 $126 −$79 (-38%)
Will Takefusa Kubo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 47¢ $127 $112 −$14 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 13? No 60¢ 64¢ $106 $112 +$6 (+6%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 83¢ 76¢ $121 $111 −$10 (-8%)
Maduro guilty of all counts? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $102 $109 +$7 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 83¢ 100¢ $90 $109 +$18 (+20%)
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 8¢ 3¢ $256 $108 −$147 (-58%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $101 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Will StandX launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 32¢ $135 $98 −$37 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? No 75¢ 100¢ $69 $92 +$23 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? No 68¢ 62¢ $96 $88 −$8 (-8%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $53 $87 +$34 (+63%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $149 $85 −$64 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 13 $124 −$146 -118%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $216 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -15%
Will Vitinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $31 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $17 −$3 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $224 −$9 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $88 −$60 -69%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 12 $32 +$10 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $96 +$5 +5%
Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential Jun 12 $12 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 +$9 +18%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 12 $124 −$16 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 12 $68 −$5 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 12 $112 −$18 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 12 $220 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $92 −$39 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$9 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $43 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $142 +$86 +60%
Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 12 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +2%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? Jun 12 $130 −$35 -27%
Will MOUZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $232 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $82 +$14 +17%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 12 $118 −$57 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 12 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $113 −$20 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $44 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $255 −$39 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 12 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$12 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $41 +$8 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 −$13 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $162 +$87 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $77 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $43 +$8 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 52% −$1,791
other 27% −$2,408
politics 9% −$351
sports 5% −$64
world 3% −$701
finance 2% −$136
culture 1% +$118
economics 1% −$36
tech 1% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 44¢ $23 1m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 29¢ $18 5m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 5m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 59¢ $7 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $19 7m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $63 7m
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11m
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13m
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 16m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 16m
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 45¢ $10 19m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? SELL No 82¢ $5 21m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 74¢ $8 22m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 68¢ $2 23m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 68¢ $10 23m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 59¢ $17 23m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 68¢ $20 23m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 68¢ $10 23m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 23m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 23m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 59¢ $7 23m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 45¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 34m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 400 +7.8% -2.5% 50% 27% -13.5%
≤30d 400 +7.8% -2.5% 50% 27% -13.5%
≤90d 400 +7.8% -2.5% 50% 27% -13.5%
all 400 +7.8% -2.5% 50% 27% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover628.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.5% 27% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.8% 18% -21.8%
15% -20.3% 13% -29.3%
20% -28.2% 10% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,461.85 · official $8,461.68 (match) · 3500 history records