Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
52 0x52f0…3348 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+8%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$40
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$35
sports 5% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -15.8% -23.8% 55% 55% +7.5%
≤30d 13 -28.8% -35.6% 46% 46% -1.7%
≤90d 13 -28.8% -35.6% 46% 46% -1.7%
all 13 -28.8% -35.6% 46% 46% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 46% -1.7%
10% -41.7% 46% -11.1%
15% -47.4% 38% -19.7%
20% -52.5% 31% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$9 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage8d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $27 +$16 +57%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $27 7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.58 · official $44.58 (match) · 21 history records