Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:08:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52f1…4cd7 crypto 1388 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+2%) realized +$103 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%769W / 616L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day92.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$18
14 days−$59
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 435 +2.1% -7.6% 64% 60% -10.4%
≤30d 1385 +0.2% -9.3% 56% 53% -9.5%
≤90d 1385 +0.2% -9.3% 56% 53% -9.5%
all 1385 +0.2% -9.3% 56% 53% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 53% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 51% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 43% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 32% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses769 / 616
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1385 / 1388
History coverage17d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day92.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 59¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$7 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.47 · official $2.02 · 3000 history records