Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
52 0x52f2…9a2c sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$33 (-12%) realized −$34 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$15
other 16% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +11.6% +0.9% 60% 60% -9.6%
≤30d 10 +11.6% +0.9% 60% 60% -9.6%
≤90d 10 +11.6% +0.9% 60% 60% -9.6%
all 10 +11.6% +0.9% 60% 60% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 60% -9.6%
10% -8.7% 60% -18.2%
15% -17.5% 40% -26.1%
20% -25.6% 40% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$25 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 +$39 +152%
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $7 −$7 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $6 +$2 +26%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$15 +149%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $65 −$64 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $33 +$32 +95%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $25 +$8 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$6 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $34 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $30 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 1h
Ecuador to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $7 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $25 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $8 6d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $6 6d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 62¢ $65 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $65 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 50¢ $33 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $33 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 75¢ $25 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $16 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.56 · official $64.57 (match) · 18 history records