Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52f2…5a5d sports 910 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 133d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$754 (-1%) realized −$766 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%488W / 419L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$525est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3,841now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$321
7 days−$1,231
14 days−$1,256
30 days−$1,430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$2,060
other 17% +$1,700
weather 12% −$181
world 3% +$161
politics 2% −$437
crypto 0% +$8
culture 0% −$10
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -11.3% -19.7% 49% 49% -21.5%
≤30d 304 -9.6% -18.2% 52% 51% -17.8%
≤90d 785 -6.0% -14.9% 55% 53% -10.6%
all 907 -4.7% -13.8% 54% 50% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 50% -10.5%
10% -22.1% 46% -19.1%
15% -29.6% 39% -26.9%
20% -36.5% 33% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$54 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$3,841
Realized−$766
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses488 / 419
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$525
Open positions3
Markets (closed)907 / 910
History coverage133d ⚠
Avg bet$86
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 907 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 35¢ 46¢ $41 $53 +$13 (+31%)
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-8.5) Minnesota Lynx 54¢ 55¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5 Under 50¢ 47¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $13 +$17 +130%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $27 −$27 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $14 +$10 +72%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $80 −$78 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $80 −$78 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $33 −$32 -97%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $17 −$16 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $92 +$99 +107%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $93 −$91 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $38 −$38 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $43 −$43 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $39 +$38 +98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $104 −$102 -98%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 15 $158 +$100 +63%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $23 −$22 -99%
Egypt to win the second half? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 +$51 +218%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $23 +$12 +51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $24 +$28 +116%
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $293 +$209 +72%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $137 +$160 +117%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $315 −$16 -5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $29 −$28 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $52 −$36 -68%
Anthony Elanga: 1+ shots Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +95%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $92 −$90 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $46 +$29 +63%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 14 $63 +$15 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $32 +$70 +218%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $32 +$22 +69%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $33 +$43 +130%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $67 +$37 +56%
Türkiye to win the second half? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $177 −$175 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $73 −$71 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 13 $130 +$72 +56%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 13 $164 −$162 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $145 +$77 +53%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $41 −$41 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$41 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $42 +$23 +56%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $42 −$42 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $43 −$42 -99%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 12 $456 −$450 -99%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $284 +$182 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $13 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $13 5h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire: O/U 161.5 BUY Under 50¢ $14 6h
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-8.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 54¢ $14 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $14 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $14 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $14 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $58 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $21 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $80 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $16 21h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 25h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 25h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 25h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 54¢ $17 26h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $92 26h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $93 26h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $19 37h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $19 37h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $19 37h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $19 37h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $24 37h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 37h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $89 38h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 38h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 61¢ $53 45h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 61¢ $52 45h
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Mia Ristic 61¢ $53 45h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $23 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,840.70 · official $3,840.70 (match) · 3500 history records