Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52f4…7f21 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$4
other 15% $0
politics 11% +$2
crypto 4% −$1
sports 4% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 10 +3.1% -6.7% 40% 10% -8.5%
≤90d 10 +3.1% -6.7% 40% 10% -8.5%
all 42 -0.8% -10.3% 48% 2% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -8.7%
10% -18.8% 2% -17.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.04 per $1 lost it wins $3.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage466d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $46 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $7 $0 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $44 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $17 +$5 +28%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $42 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $6 $0 +3%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 15 $6 $0 +9%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100K and $102K on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Czechia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final? May 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $12 +$1 +5%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $1 $0 -29%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 29 $13 $0 +1%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 27 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $6 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $39 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $9 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $7 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $9 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 19h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $3 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $45 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $46 36h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $38 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $6 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $44 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $17 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $6 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $36 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $42 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records