Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:42:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52f8…ad19 sports 1416 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,795 (+1%) realized +$1,795 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%588W / 828L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$1,247est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$239
7 days+$3,546
14 days+$3,250
30 days+$3,103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$1,487
crypto 25% +$1,338
other 2% +$474
weather 0% −$20
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +66.6% +50.7% 71% 71% +98.8%
≤30d 61 -4.6% -13.7% 39% 39% +34.9%
≤90d 1213 -14.1% -22.3% 41% 37% -9.3%
all 1416 -13.2% -21.4% 42% 38% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 38% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 35% -18.0%
15% -35.8% 32% -25.9%
20% -42.1% 29% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$46 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,795
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses588 / 828
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$1,247
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1416 / 1416
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$89
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1416 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $51 +$34 +67%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 +$98 +97%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $51 +$78 +153%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $102 +$24 +23%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $51 +$105 +206%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$131 +128%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $53 +$94 +179%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 +$68 +67%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $51 +$53 +105%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 +$26 +360%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,986 +$3,043 +153%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 −$112 -55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 −$19 -38%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 04 $5 −$4 -98%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $3 +$2 +79%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $2 +$1 +67%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $355 −$300 -85%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner May 30 $51 +$282 +549%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $53 −$50 -94%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports - Game 3 Winner May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 29 $403 +$152 +38%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 1 Winner May 28 $51 +$51 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -95%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $51 +$166 +325%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $53 −$50 -95%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag May 28 $51 +$59 +117%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers May 28 $51 +$87 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $85 55m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $51 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 39¢ $51 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL No 41¢ $126 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 32¢ $102 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 26h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $156 41h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 32¢ $51 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $232 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 36¢ $51 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 35¢ $41 3d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 66¢ $147 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 22¢ $53 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $51 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $169 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $101 5d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $104 5d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 48¢ $51 5d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 53¢ $51 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $33 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $5,029 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $1,935 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $51 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 21¢ $7 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 41¢ $102 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records