Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:55:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52f9…1fb2 sports 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,991 (-10%) realized −$11,339 · open −$652
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,372per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$1,477est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11,204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,570
7 days−$17,984
14 days−$12,901
30 days−$12,901
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$13,299
other 17% −$1,880
crypto 2% +$1,626
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -10.6% -19.1% 41% 41% -46.0%
≤30d 49 -4.4% -13.5% 45% 45% -21.2%
≤90d 49 -4.4% -13.5% 45% 45% -21.2%
all 49 -4.4% -13.5% 45% 45% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 45% -21.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 45% -28.8%
15% -29.3% 45% -35.6%
20% -36.3% 43% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$2,528) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,756 vs −$1,908 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$11,204
Realized−$11,339
Unrealized−$652
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1,477
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage13d
Avg bet$2,372
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 27¢ 25¢ $10,657 $10,024 −$632 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $1,200 $1,180 −$20 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $389 +$558 +143%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 19 $682 −$667 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $241 −$236 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2,666 −$2,612 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,120 −$1,099 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,539 −$1,514 -98%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,497 +$1,196 +80%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $921 +$1,309 +142%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3,380 +$4,918 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $1,132 +$819 +72%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $123 −$121 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $801 +$687 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$44 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$16 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$16 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $71 +$108 +153%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $2,485 +$1,651 +66%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $507 −$497 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,714 +$1,997 +116%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,571 −$2,528 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $719 −$711 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $851 −$841 -99%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $2,054 −$1,248 -61%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $15,203 −$14,970 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3,040 −$3,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $14,823 +$8,558 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5,553 +$2,571 +46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,721 +$1,529 +56%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $7,846 −$7,695 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3,252 −$3,200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,318 +$1,087 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $205 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $68 −$66 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $7,523 +$7,706 +102%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $3,894 −$3,798 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $5,196 −$5,145 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $566 +$339 +60%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,133 +$2,166 +102%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $409 +$1,335 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 06 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$5 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $947 22m
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 44¢ $175 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $1,225 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 38¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 38¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 38¢ $102 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $469 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $643 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $489 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 24¢ $682 4h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 35¢ $10 4h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 29¢ $241 5h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $766 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 31¢ $803 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 34¢ $1,020 12h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 43¢ $478 13h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $1,386 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 23¢ $102 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $916 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $102 16h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $1,539 20h
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America BUY Hokori 16¢ $103 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $2,693 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $2,230 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 52¢ $433 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 56¢ $1,064 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $502 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $419 3d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4,164 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $8,298 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,204.36 · official $11,204.36 (match) · 122 history records