Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:37:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8.0
score
52 0x52f9…e1c7 world 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 343d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$28,573 (+7%) realized +$27,983 · open +$896
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%110W / 105L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$1,874per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$113est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$12,392now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,739
7 days+$924
14 days+$2,309
30 days+$7,091
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% +$24,088
politics 3% +$3,146
other 3% +$2,951
sports 3% −$1,179
finance 1% +$446
crypto 0% +$88
economics 0% −$3
tech 0% −$731
culture 0% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -4.3% -13.4% 47% 24% -7.2%
≤30d 38 +11.1% +0.6% 50% 37% -4.2%
≤90d 72 +29.1% +16.8% 49% 38% -4.7%
all 215 +26.1% +14.1% 51% 46% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.1% 46% -1.3%
10% +3.2% 40% -10.8%
15% -6.8% 36% -19.4%
20% -15.9% 33% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,200) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$672 vs −$438 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$12,392
Realized+$27,983
Unrealized+$896
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses110 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$113
Open positions7
Markets (closed)215 / 222
History coverage343d
Avg bet$1,874
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 58¢ 67¢ $4,700 $5,405 +$705 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 36¢ 62¢ $2,000 $3,487 +$1,487 (+74%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 31¢ 22¢ $1,750 $1,224 −$526 (-30%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 49¢ 94¢ $546 $1,063 +$517 (+95%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 44¢ 22¢ $1,500 $734 −$766 (-51%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 25¢ 16¢ $500 $336 −$164 (-33%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 14¢ $500 $144 −$356 (-71%)
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11? Yes 43¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
US x Saudi security agreement by November 30? No 36¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 26¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? No $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in October? No 35¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Nazi" or "Holocaust" during the Hanukkah Reception event on Tuesday? No 45¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Yes $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Yes 11¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6? Yes 41¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? No 39¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025? Yes 15¢ $121 $0 −$121 (-100%)
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? No 46¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Jew" or "Jewish" 10+ times during the Hanukkah Reception event on Tuesday? No 27¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Israel allow independent journalists into Gaza by December 31? No $202 $0 −$202 (-100%)
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Yes $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 51¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20? No 21¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? No 54¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $204 +$20 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $15,000 +$1,970 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $307 −$300 -98%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2,033 −$49 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2,000 +$669 +33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $5,500 +$361 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $3,620 −$931 -26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $300 −$96 -32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2,000 −$111 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $530 −$346 -65%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $300 +$15 +5%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $507 +$402 +79%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $2,000 −$815 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,000 −$208 -21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $500 +$11 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $3,225 +$384 +12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $9,250 +$1,564 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $2,000 +$2,149 +107%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 02 $3,200 −$3,192 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $4,000 −$1,947 -49%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $4,250 −$408 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $4,000 +$3,219 +80%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,025 −$360 -18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $500 +$109 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $33,730 +$3,492 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2,600 −$557 -21%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $200 +$167 +83%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 25 $2,000 +$329 +16%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 25 $459 +$281 +61%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 24 $3,000 +$836 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $3,500 −$427 -12%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $1,000 +$506 +51%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 23 $200 −$200 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $500 +$1,879 +376%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $3,500 −$629 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 18 $500 −$47 -9%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 15 $3,000 −$599 -20%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 10 $1,200 −$306 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 08 $5,000 +$2,381 +48%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $204 +$510 +250%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 05 $1,200 +$53 +4%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026? May 05 $300 +$213 +71%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 02 $511 −$500 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $1,100 −$254 -23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $950 −$591 -62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $1,600 −$220 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $500 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $100 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $100 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $1,000 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 41¢ $224 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 36¢ $204 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $1,000 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $2,000 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $927 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 25¢ $350 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $5,653 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $500 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $307 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $500 25h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $300 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $1,159 25h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 34¢ $300 25h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $1,984 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $2,669 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $5,462 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $8 26h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $300 26h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 31¢ $200 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $7,791 26h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY No 33¢ $300 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 98¢ $980 31h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $1,500 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 22¢ $801 36h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $1,000 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 16¢ $220 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,391.68 · official $12,286.84 (match) · 711 history records