Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
52 0x52fb…288e crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$936 (+7%) realized +$924 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$733per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$188
7 days+$188
14 days+$188
30 days+$976
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$147
other 41% +$67
sports 8% +$935
world 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +133.8% +111.5% 50% 50% +46.2%
≤30d 15 +4.8% -5.2% 47% 40% +13.8%
≤90d 18 -1.7% -11.1% 39% 33% -3.9%
all 18 -1.7% -11.1% 39% 33% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 33% -3.9%
10% -19.6% 28% -13.1%
15% -27.4% 22% -21.5%
20% -34.5% 22% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$87 · ×2.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$924
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage79d
Avg bet$733
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $106 +$388 +368%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 03 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 03 $1,055 +$935 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 30 $311 −$87 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 30 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 30 $208 +$54 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 30 $105 +$194 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 30 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 29 $105 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 29 $212 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 29 $105 +$62 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 29 $208 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 29 $212 −$110 -52%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1,068 +$143 +13%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Apr 05 $4,600 −$88 -2%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Apr 05 $5,000 −$45 -1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $106 1h
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $103 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $108 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $9 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $130 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $14 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $109 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $106 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $299 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $115 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $24 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $175 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $167 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.50 · official $112.50 (match) · 58 history records