Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:31:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
52 0x52fc…f6e6 weather 37 markets active 3h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$13 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%32W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 36% $0
other 31% +$3
crypto 27% +$3
politics 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 17 -5.5% -14.5% 88% 6% -7.3%
≤90d 34 -2.1% -11.4% 94% 3% -8.0%
all 34 -2.1% -11.4% 94% 3% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -8.0%
10% -19.9% 3% -16.8%
15% -27.6% 3% -24.9%
20% -34.7% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$22 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses32 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage56d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 48¢ 54¢ $48 $54 +$6 (+12%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $24 $10 −$14 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 7? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 7? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $51 +$49 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 31? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $37 −$36 -97%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 24? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 19? May 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 22? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on May 22? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 19? May 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 18 $12 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10PM ET May 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 13? May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET May 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 10? May 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of May 4 2026? May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $355 Week of May 4 2026? May 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 07 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 05 $12 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 30? May 05 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $6 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $8 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 18d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $5 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $15 18d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 18d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes $7 21d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 21d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $37 21d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 25d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $10 32d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 64°F or higher on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 34d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 34d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $20 34d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 38d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $51 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $30 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $6 38d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $15 43d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $4 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.15 · official $89.15 (match) · 71 history records