Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
52 0x52fd…4132 crypto 724 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$106,282 (+10%) realized +$106,282 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate94%724W / 43L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$1,500per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$4,638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,166
7 days+$9,934
14 days+$13,556
30 days+$18,770
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$50,498
other 5% +$6,983
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 244 -11.3% -19.8% 82% 9% -6.6%
≤30d 424 -4.5% -13.6% 90% 8% -6.7%
≤90d 767 +0.6% -9.0% 94% 6% -4.5%
all 767 +0.6% -9.0% 94% 6% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 6% -4.5%
10% -17.7% 3% -13.6%
15% ← realistic here -25.6% 2% -22.0%
20% -32.9% 1% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$747) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$18 · ×4.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×72.7 per $1 lost it wins $72.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$4,638
Realized+$106,282
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses724 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)767 / 724
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$1,500
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 767 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $87 −$87 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - March 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 27 $77 −$155 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $94 −$94 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $88 −$88 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $88 −$88 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $3,492 +$35 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $63 +$1 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $6 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 27 $29,692 +$300 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $505 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $6,127 +$67 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $35 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $62 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $914 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $31 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $47 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $28 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $14 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,638.47 · official $4,638.47 (match) · 3500 history records