Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5303…597c crypto 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+2%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate78%93W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$11
sports 20% −$43
other 7% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +1.0% -8.7% 84% 21% -6.0%
≤30d 38 +1.0% -8.7% 84% 21% -6.0%
≤90d 38 +1.0% -8.7% 84% 21% -6.0%
all 120 -2.3% -11.6% 78% 22% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 22% -10.1%
10% -20.1% 11% -18.7%
15% -27.8% 7% -26.6%
20% -34.9% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses93 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage193d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $75 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $83 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $80 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$19 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$11 +128%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 06 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 06 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 06 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 06 $7 $0 +1%
Mavericks vs. Magic Mar 06 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 06 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 06 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 06 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 06 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 05 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 05 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 05 $4 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 379 history records