Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:59:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x5305…8ace crypto 73 markets active 3d ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$470 (-4%) realized −$470 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate53%39W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$7
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$483
other 8% +$5
sports 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +3.7% -6.1% 100% 0% -5.8%
≤30d 3 +8.7% -1.7% 100% 33% -5.2%
≤90d 11 +4.8% -5.2% 82% 18% -7.2%
all 73 -8.2% -17.0% 53% 37% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 37% -13.4%
10% -24.9% 36% -21.7%
15% -32.2% 36% -29.2%
20% -38.8% 34% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$27 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$470
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses39 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage239d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $65 +$2 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $113 +$6 +5%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +18%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 02 $116 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 14 $8 +$9 +122%
HYPE Up or Down on April 8? Apr 10 $107 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $700 in March? Apr 08 $106 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? Mar 27 $33 +$1 +3%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 27 $77 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 14 $8,593 −$9 -0%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 06 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 06 $99 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 12AM ET Feb 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 7, 8AM ET Feb 07 $48 −$48 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Fabric public sale? Feb 07 $168 $0 +0%
Over $3M committed to the Fabric public sale? Feb 01 $168 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 18, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jan 28 $26 +$26 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jan 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 12 $22 +$22 +100%
XRP Up or Down - December 30, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Dec 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Dec 30 $26 +$26 +100%
Solana Up or Down - December 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Dec 23 $27 +$27 +100%
XRP Up or Down - December 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Dec 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Dec 16 $20 +$20 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Dec 16 $44 +$44 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Dec 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Dec 07 $30 +$30 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 03 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November? Dec 03 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Dec 03 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Nov 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Nov 28 $12 +$12 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Nov 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 24? Nov 25 $4 +$1 +37%
XRP Up or Down - November 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Nov 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 21, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Nov 23 $10 +$10 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Nov 22 $26 +$26 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Nov 20 $29 −$29 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 18, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Nov 19 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Nov 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Nov 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Nov 16 $8 +$8 +100%
Solana Up or Down - November 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Nov 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Nov 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 13, 11PM ET Nov 14 $13 +$13 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Nov 13 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Nov 13 $26 +$26 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $65 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $113 7d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $9 10d
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 39d
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 39d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 99¢ $116 58d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 74d
HYPE Up or Down on April 8? BUY Up 100¢ $107 76d
Will BNB reach $700 in March? BUY No 100¢ $106 84d
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 88d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $601 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $602 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,593 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,595 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,595 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,597 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,597 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,598 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,598 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,600 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $1,600 101d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1,601 101d
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $77 102d
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $33 102d
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $43 109d
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 109d
Will Opinion launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 133d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $22 135d
Solana Up or Down - February 7, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $28 136d
Solana Up or Down - February 7, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records