trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $40 | $35 | −$5 (-12%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $35 | $35 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $35 | $34 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 12¢ | $23 | $25 | +$2 (+8%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $23 | $20 | −$3 (-11%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 5¢ | $15 | $17 | +$2 (+15%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 7¢ | $18 | $15 | −$3 (-14%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET | Up | 7¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 07 | $80 | +$224 | +281% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Spurs | Apr 22 | $100 | +$473 | +473% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | Mar 31 | $10 | +$9 | +85% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET | Mar 30 | $16 | +$1 | +6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET | Mar 30 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +280.8% | +244.6% | 100% | 100% | +244.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +280.8% | +244.6% | 100% | 100% | +244.6% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +149.0% | +125.3% | 80% | 60% | +291.6% |
| all | 5 | +149.0% | +125.3% | 80% | 60% | +291.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +125.3% | 60% | +291.6% |
| 10% | +103.7% | 60% | +254.1% |
| 15% | +84.0% | 60% | +219.9% |
| 20% | +66.0% | 60% | +188.6% |