Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
53 0x530b…66d3 crypto 1205 markets active 0h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$465 (+1%) realized +$464 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate91%1095W / 109L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$91
14 days+$131
30 days+$550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$393
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +2.0% -7.7% 95% 6% -6.7%
≤30d 275 +3.2% -6.6% 96% 13% -5.7%
≤90d 330 +1.9% -7.8% 95% 13% -5.8%
all 1204 +0.4% -9.1% 91% 14% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 14% -8.5%
10% -17.8% 4% -17.3%
15% -25.8% 1% -25.3%
20% -33.0% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$17 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$464
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1095 / 109
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1204 / 1205
History coverage172d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $125 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $119 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $112 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $93 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $88 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $122 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $113 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $105 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $98 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $92 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $87 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $70 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $73 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $69 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $66 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $63 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $59 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $53 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $48 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $37 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $34 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $32 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $20 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $125 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $119 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $112 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $102 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $93 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $88 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $122 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $113 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $105 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $98 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $92 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $87 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $70 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $80 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $73 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $55 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.36 · official $17.36 · 3100 history records