Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:44:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x530c…89f1
sports · 160 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,453 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,340 · open −$124
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$71
Realized−$3,340
Unrealized−$124
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses72 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$714
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 160
History coverage138d
Avg bet$759
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 2 History 158 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,777
7 days+$322
14 days+$2,130
30 days−$432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $195 $71 −$124 (-64%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $723 $0 −$723 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $192 $0 −$192 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Favbet - Map 1 Winner AM Gaming 21¢ 0¢ $210 $0 −$210 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner paiN 36¢ 0¢ $550 $0 −$550 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Natus Vincere 50¢ 0¢ $601 $0 −$601 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Monte 31¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 NIP 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs paiN - Map 2 Winner paiN 48¢ 0¢ $292 $0 −$292 (-100%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $137 $0 −$137 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 G2 19¢ 0¢ $410 $0 −$410 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 M80 6¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $65-$70 in March? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner B8 48¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will APT (Rosé and Bruno Mars) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs ex-KRÜ Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Series #9 Playoffs ex-KRÜ Esports 15¢ 0¢ $252 $0 −$252 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 GamerLegion 58¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 29¢ 0¢ $620 $0 −$620 (-100%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $360 $0 −$360 (-100%)
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand New Zealand 6¢ 0¢ $332 $0 −$332 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $512 +$1,962 +383%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,914 +$279 +15%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6,032 −$6,000 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $250 +$602 +241%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $916 −$900 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,505 +$184 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $103 +$1,324 +1288%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $408 +$641 +157%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $502 +$15 +3%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $1,794 +$115 +6%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $613 +$1,629 +266%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $3,008 +$285 +10%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $3,302 +$317 +10%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $3,003 +$87 +3%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,509 +$329 +13%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2,611 +$194 +7%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$15 +146%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $420 −$410 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2,128 −$2,000 -94%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $908 +$341 +38%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3,034 +$900 +30%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $51 +$816 +1586%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,008 +$366 +36%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $509 +$715 +140%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $508 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $510 −$500 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $17 −$16 -97%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $3,004 +$87 +3%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $650 +$944 +145%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $2,219 +$793 +36%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $1,515 +$701 +46%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $395 +$255 +65%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $113 −$109 -96%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $340 +$168 +50%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 16 $142 −$137 -96%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $42 +$82 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 16 $1,930 +$2,108 +109%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $3,935 −$3,900 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 15 $1,362 +$572 +42%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 15 $1,204 +$145 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $907 +$324 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 15 $2,509 −$2,476 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 15 $5,065 −$5,000 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $5,538 +$1,598 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $1,018 +$1,543 +152%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 14 $256 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $3,031 +$1,541 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% +$878
other 11% −$1,360
world 4% −$2,033
crypto 1% −$684
finance 1% −$313
culture 0% −$162
economics 0% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $2,474 41m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $512 53m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $1,251 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 99¢ $1,240 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $1,206 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 83¢ $1,005 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 71¢ $211 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 75¢ $775 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 67¢ $909 3h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 82¢ $6,032 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $852 13h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 22¢ $409 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 55¢ $507 22h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $1,689 24h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 88¢ $1,505 24h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 100¢ $1,427 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $100 38h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 7¢ $103 38h
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $523 44h
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 38¢ $204 44h
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 69¢ $526 44h
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 26¢ $204 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $150 45h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner SELL illwill 68¢ $507 45h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner SELL illwill 68¢ $10 45h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 66¢ $113 46h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 66¢ $271 46h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 66¢ $19 46h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 66¢ $5 46h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY illwill 66¢ $94 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +144.4% +121.1% 71% 48% -8.8%
≤30d 53 +88.6% +70.6% 70% 55% -10.0%
≤90d 73 +56.1% +41.2% 60% 49% -10.6%
all 158 +7.2% -3.0% 46% 39% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 39% -12.1%
10% -12.3% 31% -20.5%
15% -20.8% 26% -28.2%
20% -28.6% 20% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.49 · official $70.96 (match) · 1063 history records