Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x530e…15e9 crypto 186 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$376 (+6%) realized +$388 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%113W / 72L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$40
14 days+$20
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$279
world 1% +$22
other 1% −$23
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +6.0% -4.1% 79% 54% +0.9%
≤30d 148 -7.5% -16.4% 61% 44% -10.0%
≤90d 185 -7.7% -16.5% 61% 44% -4.9%
all 185 -7.7% -16.5% 61% 44% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 44% -4.9%
10% -24.5% 34% -14.0%
15% -31.8% 23% -22.3%
20% -38.5% 15% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$388
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses113 / 72
Open positions1
Markets (closed)185 / 186
History coverage57d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 69¢ 22¢ $18 $6 −$12 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $76 +$12 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +64%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$5 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $48 +$2 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +48%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$2 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$3 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 03 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 03 $8 +$2 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 03 $7 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +132%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$1 -17%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 03 $7 −$4 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $4 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.85 · official $22.50 · 840 history records