Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:12:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5311…6711 crypto 141 markets active 5d ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-4%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate54%76W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 29% -13.6%
≤30d 140 -9.9% -18.5% 54% 33% -14.1%
≤90d 140 -9.9% -18.5% 54% 33% -14.1%
all 140 -9.9% -18.5% 54% 33% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 33% -14.1%
10% -26.3% 21% -22.3%
15% -33.4% 15% -29.8%
20% -39.9% 11% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses76 / 64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage24d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$8 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 29 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 29 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 29 $36 −$18 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 29 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 28 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 28 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 28 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 28 $6 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 28 $5 +$9 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 28 $5 +$7 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 28 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 28 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 28 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 28 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 28 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 28 $4 +$7 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 28 $7 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 28 $6 +$5 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 28 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 28 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 28 $4 +$8 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 28 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 28 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 28 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 28 $7 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $1.01 (match) · 533 history records