Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:29:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
53 0x5314…5390 crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 582d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$582 (-3%) realized −$497 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%28W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% −$128
economics 15% −$222
other 8% +$66
crypto 6% −$240
sports 3% +$52
tech 1% −$93
world 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -26.7% -33.7% 44% 33% -6.0%
≤30d 12 -45.0% -50.3% 33% 25% -13.5%
≤90d 18 -33.5% -39.8% 44% 39% -8.9%
all 89 -13.7% -21.9% 31% 26% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 26% -12.1%
10% -29.4% 24% -20.5%
15% -36.2% 20% -28.2%
20% -42.5% 16% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

582d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$497
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses28 / 61
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)89 / 96
History coverage582d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 53¢ 1¢ $75 $1 −$74 (-99%)
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$24 +90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 07 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 03 $5 +$2 +48%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 30 $20 +$9 +43%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 24 $70 +$16 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 16 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Mar 15 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Feb 26 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Feb 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 16 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Feb 14 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Feb 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Republican House Odds Up or Down this week? Feb 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 11 $30 +$48 +159%
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with vinegar? Jan 31 $11 +$25 +226%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on January 23? Jan 23 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 24? Jan 23 $70 −$23 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 23 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 23, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 23 $20 +$26 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 23? Jan 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on January 14? Jan 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jan 02 $120 $0 -0%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jan 02 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on December 11 Dec 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on November 30 Nov 30 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on November 29 Nov 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on November 28 Nov 28 $20 −$19 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on November 27 Nov 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on November 27 Nov 27 $40 +$18 +45%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on November 26 Nov 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on November 25 Nov 25 $20 −$11 -53%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on November 21 Nov 21 $15 −$11 -70%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,900 and $3,000 on November 22 Nov 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $9 45m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $41 50m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $10 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $20 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $60 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 20d
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $76 20d
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 47d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $70 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $40 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $20 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.24 · official $99.24 (match) · 238 history records