Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:57:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x5316…0906 other 20 markets active 8h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$995 (+17%) realized +$703 · open +$292
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$1,147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$324
14 days+$441
30 days+$518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$826
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +53.6% +39.0% 100% 100% +23.2%
≤30d 13 +11.1% +0.5% 62% 62% +1.0%
≤90d 17 +8.8% -1.5% 59% 47% +0.5%
all 17 +8.8% -1.5% 59% 47% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 47% +0.5%
10% -11.0% 24% -9.1%
15% -19.6% 12% -17.9%
20% -27.4% 12% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$41 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$1,147
Realized+$703
Unrealized+$292
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage42d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 75¢ 87¢ $504 $589 +$85 (+17%)
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 39¢ 67¢ $284 $493 +$209 (+74%)
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? No 29¢ 28¢ $67 $65 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 23 $14 +$7 +50%
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 18 $711 +$168 +24%
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 18 $171 +$148 +87%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 17 $301 +$38 +13%
Over $250k committed to the ALIGN public sale? Jun 12 $433 +$79 +18%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
XMAQUINA FDV above $60M one day after launch? May 29 $837 −$67 -8%
XMAQUINA FDV above $80M one day after launch? May 28 $229 +$39 +17%
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 27 $377 −$11 -3%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $638 +$200 +31%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $415 +$80 +19%
Citrea FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $76 −$30 -39%
Citrea FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $207 −$134 -65%
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 21 $209 +$18 +9%
Nexus FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 20 $55 $0 +1%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 19 $29 −$1 -2%
Citrea FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 19 $81 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 30¢ $16 7h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 29¢ $28 9h
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? BUY No 29¢ $27 9h
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 18h
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 65¢ $14 2d
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 46¢ $12 3d
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $61 4d
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 38¢ $40 4d
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 5d
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 39¢ $195 5d
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 75¢ $305 5d
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 39¢ $33 5d
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 5d
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 5d
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 5d
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 5d
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 5d
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $35 5d
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 74¢ $35 5d
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 73¢ $41 5d
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 95¢ $319 6d
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 7d
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 80¢ $152 7d
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 80¢ $27 7d
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 49¢ $38 7d
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 49¢ $64 7d
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL Yes 75¢ $64 7d
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 50¢ $39 7d
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 70¢ $127 7d
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,146.97 · official $1,147.00 (match) · 281 history records