Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5317…1ad1 world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-21%) realized −$33 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$25
sports 35% −$13
other 14% −$6
finance 6% +$3
politics 5% +$5
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -11.1% -19.6% 80% 20% -19.3%
≤90d 29 -30.2% -36.8% 52% 41% -35.6%
all 32 -22.6% -30.0% 53% 41% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 41% -27.3%
10% -36.7% 34% -34.3%
15% -42.8% 22% -40.6%
20% -48.4% 19% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage108d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 15¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $6 $0 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 04 $5 +$3 +64%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 21 $5 +$1 +28%
Rangers vs. Stars Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Golden Knights vs. Canucks Apr 11 $5 +$2 +45%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $4 +$3 +64%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Oilers Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Red Wings vs. Flyers Apr 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Apr 02 $6 +$1 +24%
Kraken vs. Oilers Apr 02 $6 +$4 +61%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? Mar 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Oilers vs. Utah Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 28 $5 +$1 +24%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen Mar 24 $9 +$5 +61%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Mar 18 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Mar 03 $6 $0 +7%
Oilers vs. Sharks Mar 01 $7 +$10 +144%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Galorys (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: South Ameri Feb 28 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 14d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 21d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $5 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 96¢ $6 34d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 80¢ $5 41d
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $5 49d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? BUY No 61¢ $5 54d
Will Swansea City AFC win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 78¢ $5 57d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 62d
Rangers vs. Stars BUY Rangers 37¢ $6 65d
Golden Knights vs. Canucks BUY Golden Knights 69¢ $5 68d
Blackhawks vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 61¢ $4 70d
Blackhawks vs. Oilers BUY Blackhawks 34¢ $6 73d
Red Wings vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 51¢ $6 73d
Kraken vs. Oilers BUY Oilers 62¢ $6 75d
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats BUY Purdue Boilermakers 31¢ $3 78d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 80d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 85¢ $6 81d
Oilers vs. Utah BUY Utah 57¢ $5 82d
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamen BUY Yes 62¢ $9 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 87d
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $6 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? BUY No 81¢ $6 89d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 55¢ $2 94d
Suns vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 22¢ $6 95d
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 96d
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 103d
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.70 · official $5.70 (match) · 65 history records