Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5319…d626 crypto 231 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,641 (-40%) realized −$1,629 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%79W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day32.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$708
sports 15% −$209
world 11% −$420
politics 7% +$306
other 7% −$63
tech 1% −$52
economics 0% +$15
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -2.0% -11.4% 52% 32% -19.6%
≤30d 27 -9.3% -17.9% 48% 30% -25.5%
≤90d 36 -2.4% -11.7% 47% 31% -29.8%
all 217 -9.2% -17.9% 36% 29% -35.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 29% -35.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 26% -41.4%
15% -32.9% 25% -47.1%
20% -39.5% 24% -52.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 39% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$1,629
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses79 / 138
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions14
Markets (closed)217 / 231
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day32.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 64¢ 100¢ $68 $105 +$37 (+55%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 66¢ 42¢ $36 $23 −$13 (-37%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 63¢ 92¢ $9 $14 +$4 (+46%)
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Wingman 69¢ 52¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-24%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 42¢ 58¢ $8 $12 +$3 (+38%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Infinite 68¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+48%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Team Vitality 86¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+16%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 60¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+65%)
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs ReThink 55¢ 48¢ $11 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner RisingRage 41¢ 92¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+123%)
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Estar Backs 79¢ 71¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Under 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 41¢ 28¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 38¢ 8¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-78%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 35¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Paper Rex 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs ex-RUBY 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Jun 15 $13 +$7 +55%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? Jun 10 $0 $0 -47%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $3 $0 +14%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +114%
Will the Republicans win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Democrats win the Tennessee governor race in 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026? Jun 10 $0 $0 +10%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming governor race in 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 Jun 10 $0 $0 -97%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $7 +$6 +82%
Will the Republicans win the Delaware Senate race in 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -31%
Will the Republicans win the Maine governor race in 2026? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -13%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 10 $5 −$4 -72%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $21 +$4 +20%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -14%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 10 $7 $0 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $38 +$2 +4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $28 −$6 -20%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $27 +$14 +51%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -29%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $17 −$17 -100%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 15 $15 +$13 +85%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? Apr 09 $153 +$302 +197%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $434 −$434 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $5 +$7 +157%
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game Apr 05 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? Apr 01 $24 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Apr 01 $20 −$15 -74%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Apr 01 $5 $0 -1%
Jazz vs. Kings Mar 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 16 $29 −$14 -46%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $30 −$2 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $21 +$2 +10%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 16 $29 −$15 -50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 16 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 16 $20 −$13 -67%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $9 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 0m
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ReThink 61¢ $3 0m
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ReThink 61¢ $3 2m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 4m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $1 5m
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ReThink 50¢ $3 5m
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ReThink 49¢ $2 5m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 66¢ $3 5m
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY RisingRage 41¢ $2 41m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 42m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 31¢ $2 55m
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 80¢ $4 56m
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 84¢ $4 57m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 26¢ $1 58m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $2 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $3 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 62¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 22¢ $1 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 80¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY Infinite 88¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 88¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 72¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 73¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.78 · official $219.78 (match) · 3500 history records