Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x531a…0443 other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate28%36W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,115per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$794now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$23
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$113
politics 32% −$57
sports 10% +$169
world 4% −$16
culture 4% −$8
tech 1% −$2
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 72 -14.5% -22.7% 7% 1% -11.1%
all 127 -1.3% -10.7% 28% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 10% -9.5%
10% -19.3% 9% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 9% -26.1%
20% -34.2% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,587) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$21 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$794
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses36 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,115
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $794 $794 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $246 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $296 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,995 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,325 −$2 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $1,381 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $1,495 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,415 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $8,618 −$10 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,758 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,400 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,139 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,486 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $3,377 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,648 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $1,626 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,450 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,262 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? May 20 $773 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $2,552 −$3 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,742 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,706 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $4,075 −$4 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 02 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 02 $440 +$1 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $4,533 −$5 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $3,348 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,823 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,231 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $1,184 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $3,201 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,434 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,225 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,345 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $4,479 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $246 1h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $246 2h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $568 23h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $569 24h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $296 25h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $296 26h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $319 27h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $319 28h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $794 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,323 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,325 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,380 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,381 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,493 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,495 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,095 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,097 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,316 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,318 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,261 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,263 9d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,077 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,078 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,055 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,057 14d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,398 17d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $1,400 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,437 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,439 18d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,168 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $793.94 · official $793.94 (match) · 403 history records