Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:10:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x531b…32b6 sports 31 markets active 3h ago coverage 65d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL +$612 (+0%) realized +$603 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,913per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$2,421est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31,558
7 days−$46,442
14 days−$69,689
30 days−$44,689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$34,679
world 32% +$34,752
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +139.8% +116.9% 67% 67% -54.2%
≤30d 7 +21.8% +10.2% 43% 43% -30.6%
≤90d 25 +41.1% +27.7% 60% 60% -9.5%
all 25 +41.1% +27.7% 60% 60% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.7% 60% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here +15.4% 60% -18.2%
15% +4.3% 56% -26.1%
20% -5.9% 56% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$5,348) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +57% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
25.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7,166 vs −$10,743 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$603
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2,421
Open positions6
Markets (closed)25 / 31
History coverage65d
Avg bet$7,913
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Yes $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Yes $33 $38 +$4 (+13%)
Will Oakland Athletics win the 2026 AL West title? Yes $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes $12 $14 +$2 (+17%)
Will Rhyne Howard have the highest steals per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $13,195 +$21,805 +165%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2,754 +$9,752 +354%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $78,043 −$78,000 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 05 $13,500 −$13,500 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 05 $5,348 −$5,348 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 05 $4,399 −$4,399 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $75,000 +$25,000 +33%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5 May 08 $10,222 +$9,778 +96%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5 May 08 $9,824 +$10,176 +104%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Apr 24 $4,900 +$4,947 +101%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Apr 24 $5,100 +$4,900 +96%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5 Apr 21 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 224.5 Apr 20 $598 −$598 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns: O/U 218.5 Apr 20 $29 +$35 +122%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Apr 20 $2,080 +$1,920 +92%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5 Apr 20 $4,400 +$5,600 +127%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5 Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5 Apr 18 $483 −$483 -100%
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 219.5 Apr 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Apr 17 $1,350 +$3,650 +270%
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 220.5 Apr 16 $2,000 +$2,910 +146%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $2,600 +$2,400 +92%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $567 −$567 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 218.5 Apr 15 $1,639 +$2,172 +133%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Apr 15 $2,550 +$2,450 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 4h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $13,195 4h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $3 5h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $3 6h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $3 7h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 8h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 8h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 9h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $0 10h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $4 10h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $10 10h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $13 10h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $6 10h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $2 10h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $3 10h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.45 · official $198.45 (match) · 842 history records