Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:52:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x531b…da26 weather 451 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$445 (-7%) realized −$444 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%121W / 329L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 64% −$553
sports 27% −$12
crypto 5% +$6
world 3% −$5
other 1% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 5% -10.0%
≤30d 88 -2.0% -11.3% 40% 35% -11.1%
≤90d 450 -22.8% -30.1% 27% 24% -16.4%
all 450 -22.8% -30.1% 27% 24% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 24% -16.4%
10% -36.8% 23% -24.4%
15% -42.9% 22% -31.7%
20% -48.5% 19% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$8 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$444
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses121 / 329
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)450 / 451
History coverage75d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 450 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HYPE Up or Down on June 28? Up 95¢ 50¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 253 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 28 $175 −$4 -2%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 28 $21 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 28 $10 $0 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 28 $12 $0 -3%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 28 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $10 −$1 -6%
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? Jun 28 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $40 +$5 +12%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $73 −$2 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $92 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $80 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $0 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $13 −$1 -6%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 26 $14 $0 -2%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 +$10 +384%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$6 +132%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $40 +$25 +63%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $11 −$11 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $50 −$49 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $68 −$66 -97%
Spread: Hungary (-1.5) Jun 09 $38 +$31 +81%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) Jun 09 $60 −$59 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $64 −$23 -36%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 09 $144 +$71 +49%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 09 $104 −$12 -11%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $50 +$15 +29%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $35 +$7 +19%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $35 +$21 +59%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 08 $67 +$35 +53%
Spread: Kosovo (-1.5) Jun 07 $20 +$15 +76%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5) Jun 07 $12 +$10 +80%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 07 $81 +$32 +40%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $26 −$26 -98%
Spread: Gibraltar (-1.5) Jun 06 $40 +$30 +74%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $23 +$14 +61%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 06 $17 +$15 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $23 +$12 +51%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 06 $34 −$28 -84%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 06 $62 +$23 +37%
Spread: Russia (-2.5) Jun 05 $42 +$20 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $117 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $120 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $10 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $10 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $10 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $10 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 85¢ $2 2h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $2 2h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
HYPE Up or Down on June 28? BUY Up 95¢ $2 7h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? SELL No 95¢ $10 7h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? SELL Yes 70¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 28? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 7h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL No 51¢ $10 7h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? BUY No 52¢ $10 7h
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? SELL No 51¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.04 · official $1.04 (match) · 1159 history records