Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
53 0x531c…a9c8 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$1,616 (+95%) realized +$1,815 · open −$199
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +253% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +220% what you keep after slip
Net edge+220%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$1,097
sports 15% +$676
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+219.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +215.7% +185.6% 100% 100% +185.6%
≤30d 3 +253.3% +219.7% 100% 100% +213.0%
≤90d 3 +253.3% +219.7% 100% 100% +213.0%
all 3 +253.3% +219.7% 100% 100% +213.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +219.7% 100% +213.0%
10% +189.1% 100% +183.1%
15% +161.2% 100% +155.7%
20% +135.6% 100% +130.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +246% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +253% · $-wt +246% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$657 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$1,815
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)3 / 9
History coverage9d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $160 $135 −$25 (-16%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Paraguay 27¢ 34¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $60 $1 −$59 (-98%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-98%)
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $102 +$220 +216%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $205 +$664 +324%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $495 +$1,087 +220%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 27¢ $51 22m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $322 33m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $25 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $165 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $335 9h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 9h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 9h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 9h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $869 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,582 9d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 23¢ $205 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $380 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $116 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $495 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.46 · official $199.46 (match) · 25 history records