Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:20:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x531f…778f sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$45 (+1%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$39
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$59
other 4% −$1
world 2% +$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +19.4% +8.1% 33% 17% -10.7%
≤30d 24 +10.9% +0.3% 50% 25% -10.2%
≤90d 24 +10.9% +0.3% 50% 25% -10.2%
all 24 +10.9% +0.3% 50% 25% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.3% 25% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.3% 21% -18.8%
15% -18.1% 17% -26.7%
20% -26.1% 12% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage14d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $706 −$29 -4%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $248 +$4 +2%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 20 $205 +$5 +2%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $207 −$15 -7%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $163 −$9 -6%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $370 −$16 -4%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -60%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $50 −$4 -8%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $144 +$25 +18%
Will Germany be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 14 $1 $0 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $109 +$4 +4%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $13 +$9 +68%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $6 +$2 +38%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $172 $0 +0%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $124 +$35 +28%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -10%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $323 +$5 +2%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 11 $142 +$1 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $875 −$26 -3%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $546 −$4 -1%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $483 +$6 +1%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 06 $458 −$44 -10%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries $2 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries $4 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 85¢ $39 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 85¢ $26 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 75¢ $58 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 33¢ $18 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 33¢ $0 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 33¢ $42 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 41¢ $77 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 61¢ $74 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 60¢ $74 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 39¢ $38 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 41¢ $9 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 41¢ $14 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 41¢ $14 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 41¢ $78 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 38¢ $79 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 40¢ $86 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 36¢ $89 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 36¢ $93 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 35¢ $87 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 35¢ $91 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 56¢ $94 2h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 55¢ $95 2h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 51¢ $44 2h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 55¢ $49 2h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 97¢ $78 3h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics 90¢ $10 3h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics 90¢ $68 3h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty SELL Washington Mystics 90¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 296 history records