Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:54:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
53 0x5322…da60 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% $0
politics 7% $0
other 5% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 25 -5.7% -14.6% 0% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -22.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -30.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -37.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage557d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $23 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? Aug 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Jul 13 $1 $0 +0%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Jun 11 $0 $0 -20%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Jun 11 $0 $0 -20%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Jun 09 $0 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $0 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Everton wins the Premier League? Apr 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? Mar 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 08 $730 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 10 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 23d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 23d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 52d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 61d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 82d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 82d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 96d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 96d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $10 121d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $10 121d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 145d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 145d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 183d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 183d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 217d
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 217d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 235d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 235d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4 266d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 266d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 267d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes $1 299d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? SELL Yes $0 299d
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? BUY Yes $1 299d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? SELL Yes $1 337d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? BUY Yes $1 337d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 370d
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 370d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records