Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x5323…326a sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$13 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$67
crypto 20% −$182
other 15% +$169
weather 8% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 47% -8.5%
≤30d 36 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 47% -8.5%
≤90d 36 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 47% -8.5%
all 36 +2.7% -7.1% 50% 47% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 47% -8.5%
10% -16.0% 47% -17.2%
15% -24.1% 47% -25.2%
20% -31.6% 47% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$54 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage4d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 51¢ 78¢ $80 $122 +$42 (+52%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 30¢ 28¢ $75 $70 −$5 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Yes 48¢ 22¢ $70 $32 −$39 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $31 +$72 +235%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $81 −$80 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $91 −$90 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $73 +$65 +90%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $76 +$71 +93%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $81 +$67 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $81 −$80 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $76 +$80 +105%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $76 +$65 +86%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $81 −$80 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $76 +$57 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $82 −$55 -66%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $81 +$93 +114%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $89 +$68 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $89 −$88 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $77 +$72 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $70 +$73 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +93%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $77 −$76 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $98 −$52 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 +$63 +124%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $48 +$35 +73%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $43 −$42 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$58 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 43m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $81 1h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 29¢ $31 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 52¢ $81 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 48¢ $82 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $91 5h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $73 14h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $76 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $148 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $81 25h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $81 25h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $156 31h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $81 31h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $76 32h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $141 32h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $81 34h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 53¢ $76 37h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $76 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 46h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 16¢ $6 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 17¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 16¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 18¢ $9 47h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 32¢ $6 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.39 · official $223.39 (match) · 77 history records