Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:26:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x5325…8ef7 crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$139 (+21%) realized +$134 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate63%31W / 18L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$48
14 days+$73
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$126
politics 3% +$6
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -14.4% -22.5% 53% 53% -0.2%
≤30d 49 +5.5% -4.5% 63% 61% +9.0%
≤90d 49 +5.5% -4.5% 63% 61% +9.0%
all 49 +5.5% -4.5% 63% 61% +9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 61% +9.0%
10% -13.7% 55% -1.5%
15% -22.0% 51% -11.0%
20% -29.6% 51% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$134
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses31 / 18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage19d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 60¢ 88¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+46%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$19 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$30 +73%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$3 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -68%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$38 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$34 +83%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$18 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $9 +$8 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$3 +60%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$8 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 02 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $40 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $9 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 12h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $24 28h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $13 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $12 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $79 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $38 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $6 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.51 · official $17.53 (match) · 104 history records