Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
53 0x5329…3e3d weather 97 markets active 13h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+16%) realized +$47 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 56L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day30.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$36
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -1.6% -11.0% 37% 28% +3.0%
≤30d 88 +2.7% -7.1% 36% 28% +3.7%
≤90d 88 +2.7% -7.1% 36% 28% +3.7%
all 88 +2.7% -7.1% 36% 28% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 28% +3.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 23% -6.2%
15% -24.1% 17% -15.3%
20% -31.5% 15% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 56
Open positions9
Markets (closed)88 / 97
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day30.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Yes 30¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 22? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 23? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? Jun 21 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? Jun 21 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 21? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 20? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? Jun 19 $8 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 21? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$3 +278%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $1 $0 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $35 +$9 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 20? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 23? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 23? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 22? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 21? SELL Yes 40¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 21? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 43h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 44h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.26 · official $8.26 (match) · 262 history records