Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:29:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5329…f383 world 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%16W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$1
other 19% −$1
crypto 7% +$1
politics 4% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.7%
all 35 -0.5% -10.0% 46% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses16 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage459d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 79¢ 82¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $32 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $22 −$1 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 24 $3 $0 -1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 23 $5 $0 -2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 18 $6 $0 +8%
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 13–20? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2025 Memorial Tournament? Jun 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $11 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 11–18? Apr 15 $12 −$1 -12%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 14 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in April? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $11 $0 +0%
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April? Mar 24 $1 $0 -25%
Ethereum above $1,900 on March 21? Mar 22 $12 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $32 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $35 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $2 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $22 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $7 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $29 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $15 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $13 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $24 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $6 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $29 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $12 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $11 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $9 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $5 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 21¢ $5 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $33 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.47 · official $2.48 (match) · 107 history records