Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:48:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x532f…e626 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$53,885 (-70%) realized −$53,877 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate55%21W / 17L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$1,984per market
Trades / day52.9pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$2,104
finance 46% +$747
crypto 2% −$271
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.3% -4.8% 60% 40% -0.5%
≤30d 24 +1.7% -8.0% 54% 29% -8.9%
≤90d 38 +5.3% -4.8% 55% 37% -6.5%
all 38 +5.3% -4.8% 55% 37% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 37% -6.5%
10% -13.9% 29% -15.4%
15% ← realistic here -22.2% 3% -23.6%
20% -29.8% 3% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$2,175) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
77.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$296 vs −$213 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$53,877
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$1,984
Trades / day52.9
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Up 60¢ 44¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1,208 +$339 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $77 −$17 -22%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1,290 +$295 +23%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $98 +$2 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $2,425 −$110 -4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1,972 +$168 +8%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1,150 +$253 +22%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1,936 +$81 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1,225 +$313 +26%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $1,298 +$344 +26%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $580 −$122 -21%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $2,175 +$179 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 2? May 31 $101 −$2 -2%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? May 31 $55 −$6 -10%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $2,118 −$251 -12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $806 −$181 -22%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $2,954 −$429 -14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $971 +$241 +25%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $841 −$173 -21%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $15,641 −$1,578 -10%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $6,504 +$90 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $5,327 +$323 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 18 $553 −$86 -16%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? May 18 $4,701 +$689 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 18 $238 −$51 -21%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $970 +$294 +30%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7? May 14 $2,711 −$277 -10%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $1,180 +$329 +28%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13? May 14 $3,442 −$120 -4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12? May 12 $1,165 +$346 +30%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $1,885 +$47 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? May 11 $30 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 04 $829 −$134 -16%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 27? Apr 27 $1,522 +$185 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 21? Apr 21 $3,176 −$85 -3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 20 $1,231 +$347 +28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 17? Apr 17 $1,193 +$335 +28%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16? Apr 16 $1,532 +$1,010 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 55¢ $28 43m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 54¢ $27 43m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 54¢ $27 43m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 52¢ $26 47m
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 61¢ $31 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 61¢ $31 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 60¢ $30 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 60¢ $30 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 57¢ $29 2h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $970 22h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $237 22h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $74 22h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $29 23h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $39 23h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $11 23h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $36 23h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $37 23h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 97¢ $15 23h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 94¢ $100 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 89¢ $45 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 89¢ $45 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 90¢ $45 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 87¢ $44 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 85¢ $43 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 84¢ $42 24h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 84¢ $20 25h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 84¢ $22 25h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 83¢ $42 25h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 83¢ $42 25h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 81¢ $12 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.25 · official $22.25 (match) · 3500 history records