Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5332…baaf crypto 589 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$131 (+2%) realized +$134 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%313W / 275L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$450
7 days−$423
14 days−$505
30 days−$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$199
other 4% −$197
world 1% $0
sports 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -42.1% -47.7% 35% 31% -38.9%
≤30d 60 -20.7% -28.3% 43% 40% -27.9%
≤90d 588 -2.6% -11.8% 53% 52% -14.6%
all 588 -2.6% -11.8% 53% 52% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 52% -14.6%
10% -20.3% 52% -22.8%
15% -28.0% 50% -30.3%
20% -35.0% 45% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$134
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses313 / 275
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)588 / 589
History coverage74d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 588 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $223 +$174 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $104 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $32 +$27 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$25 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$6 +83%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$22 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +82%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +286%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$27 +88%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$6 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $32 +$24 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $370 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.75 · official $1.75 (match) · 1321 history records