Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:47:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
53 0x5333…22e1 other 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+0%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate51%42W / 41L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$39
14 days+$21
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$31
other 25% +$8
finance 2% −$4
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% +$7
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +288.2% +251.2% 57% 29% -6.6%
≤30d 23 +137.4% +114.8% 52% 17% -9.1%
≤90d 27 +113.4% +93.0% 48% 15% -9.2%
all 83 +49.5% +35.3% 51% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.3% 7% -9.2%
10% +22.3% 6% -17.9%
15% +10.5% 6% -25.8%
20% -0.3% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +25% → late +73% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses42 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage469d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $159 +$20 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $187 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $197 −$1 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $83 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $308 +$11 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $183 +$3 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $178 +$5 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +61%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,438 −$22 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $188 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $171 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $288 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $188 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $68 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $225 +$1 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $191 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $91 +$3 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $170 −$4 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $1,852 +$5 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $159 +$2 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $985 +$4 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $1,067 $0 +0%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $5 $0 +7%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 16 $6 $0 +5%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $15 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 9–16? May 15 $8 $0 +4%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Starmer out before July? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sweden qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $8 $0 -1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 08 $1 $0 -9%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 06 $9 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $39 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $142 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $37 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $159 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $187 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $113 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $74 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $196 39h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $197 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $16 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $22 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 74¢ $109 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 73¢ $107 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $6 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $9 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $171 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $183 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $44 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.84 · official $38.64 (match) · 330 history records