Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:57:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x5333…44a0
world · 67 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses22 / 44
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage480d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 66 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $17 $0 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $6 +$1 +22%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +41%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $129 −$2 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $3 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $46 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $165 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $4 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $24 −$1 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $16 −$3 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $49 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $12 +$11 +97%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 18 $3 $0 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $79 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $5 $0 -4%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $160 +$3 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $54 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $43 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $3 $0 +13%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $98 −$1 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $120 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $38 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $13 −$4 -29%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $79 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $45 $0 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $1 $0 +15%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $82 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $54 $0 +1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 04 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 36% −$4
other 23% −$3
politics 23% +$3
sports 11% −$8
economics 6% $0
finance 0% +$11
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $6 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $40 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $5 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $12 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $30 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $8 3d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 9¢ $6 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $50 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $1 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $42 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $42 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +10.5% -0.0% 50% 33% -9.4%
≤30d 21 +7.7% -2.5% 52% 19% -8.6%
≤90d 64 +2.5% -7.3% 34% 9% -9.3%
all 66 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 9% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.51 · official $13.51 (match) · 281 history records