Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x5334…d023
other · 16 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$163 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$163 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$17
Realized+$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage87d
Avg bet$405
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 1 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Japan 91¢ 90¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? Jun 03 $13 +$1 +8%
Will Port Vale FC win on 2026-04-28? Jun 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5) Jun 03 $18 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Inter Kashi FC 1 - 1 East Bengal FC? Jun 03 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 20 $199 +$19 +9%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 20 $1,335 +$13 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Mar 20 $365 −$2 -1%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 20 $1,389 +$3 +0%
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 20 $1,395 +$3 +0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the e Mar 20 $39 −$4 -9%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 20 $1,306 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 20 $211 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Mar 20 $30 −$1 -3%
FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Draw at halftime? Mar 20 $75 +$52 +70%
Map Handicap: EP (-1.5) vs Barça eSports (+1.5) Mar 20 $51 +$90 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% −$4
politics 28% +$22
world 22% +$3
sports 2% +$144
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Japan 91¢ $17 1h
Spread: Cruzeiro EC (-2.5) BUY Fluminense FC 92¢ $18 14d
Exact Score: Inter Kashi FC 1 - 1 East Bengal FC? BUY No 94¢ $20 24d
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? BUY No 92¢ $13 31d
Will Port Vale FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY No 91¢ $14 47d
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL Yes $1 85d
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL Yes $217 85d
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes $199 85d
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 95¢ $1,348 85d
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 94¢ $859 85d
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 94¢ $476 85d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes $168 85d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes $171 85d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL Yes 91¢ $914 85d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? SELL Yes 91¢ $478 85d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 90¢ $530 85d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 90¢ $128 85d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 90¢ $664 85d
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? BUY Yes 90¢ $67 85d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes $92 85d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes $103 85d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes $118 85d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes $76 85d
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1,398 85d
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1,275 85d
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $120 85d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the e SELL Yes $35 85d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the e BUY Yes $39 85d
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 92¢ $1,306 86d
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 92¢ $1,306 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -19.2% -26.9% 75% 0% -23.2%
≤90d 15 +11.2% +0.6% 60% 13% -7.2%
all 15 +11.2% +0.6% 60% 13% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 13% -7.2%
10% -9.0% 13% -16.1%
15% -17.8% 13% -24.2%
20% -25.8% 13% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.20 · official $17.20 (match) · 45 history records