Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:28:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5336…de48 other 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$740 (+1%) realized +$740 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate15%12W / 69L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$1,493per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,055now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$29
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$64
other 40% −$111
sports 14% +$882
crypto 2% +$5
culture 1% −$2
world 1% −$1
tech 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -7.2% -16.0% 12% 3% -9.0%
all 81 -3.0% -12.3% 15% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 7% -9.0%
10% -20.6% 7% -17.7%
15% -28.3% 4% -25.7%
20% -35.3% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,112) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$8 · ×13.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$1,055
Realized+$740
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses12 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage106d
Avg bet$1,493
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $726 $726 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $329 $329 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $3,615 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,004 −$4 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,229 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $2,800 −$4 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,390 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,920 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,390 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 04 $715 +$2 +0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $944 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $5,101 −$5 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $2,440 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $2,926 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,228 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,310 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $2,991 −$3 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $613 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $1,393 +$404 +29%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 08 $1,701 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,634 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $3,890 −$5 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $1,577 −$2 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 02 $1,637 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? May 02 $1,041 +$2 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $2,281 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,310 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $2,960 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $3,799 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,492 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $2,835 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,843 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,584 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1,189 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $1,627 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $2,660 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $69 −$69 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Apr 07 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-03-07? Apr 07 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-04? Apr 07 $106 −$106 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Apr 07 $77 −$77 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $329 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $726 20h
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,498 3d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,500 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,091 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,093 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,256 5d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,258 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,076 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,078 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,227 9d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,229 9d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,599 10d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,602 10d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 11d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,643 11d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,388 12d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,390 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,526 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,528 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,392 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,394 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,388 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,390 13d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $962 17d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $964 17d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $942 17d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $944 17d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $733 20d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $734 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,054.82 · official $1,054.82 (match) · 256 history records