Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x533a…d378 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$128 (-29%) realized −$88 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%8W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days−$131
14 days−$131
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$168
sports 10% +$37
world 9% −$40
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -22.7% -30.1% 27% 27% -41.6%
≤30d 11 -22.7% -30.1% 27% 27% -41.6%
≤90d 18 -1.6% -11.0% 44% 39% -39.6%
all 18 -1.6% -11.0% 44% 39% -39.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 39% -39.6%
10% -19.5% 33% -45.4%
15% -27.3% 33% -50.7%
20% -34.4% 22% -55.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$25 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses8 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage82d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $68 +$27 +40%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 +$21 +70%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$62 +302%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 05 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 05 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 05 $2 +$4 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 23h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $38 23h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 44h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 44¢ $31 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 49¢ $49 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 49¢ $6 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $30 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $17 44h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 44h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 24¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $50 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $83 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 46 history records