Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x533c…e301 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$1
other 29% $0
politics 18% −$1
sports 8% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 5 +1.0% -8.7% 40% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 7 +1.0% -8.6% 43% 14% -10.1%
all 37 +0.2% -9.4% 32% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 3% -18.4%
15% -26.0% 3% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage284d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 89¢ 90¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 23 $68 +$2 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $33 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $35 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $20 −$8 -39%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $9 +$4 +41%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $2 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 29 $19 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 29 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $22 $0 -1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $7 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 23 $14 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-18? Sep 22 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $5 $0 -5%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 17 $26 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $24 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $14 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $38 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $5 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $29 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $34 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $28 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $5 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $30 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $27 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $5 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $32 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $35 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $35 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $31 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $5 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $35 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $15 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 31d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 31d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 267d
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $19 267d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 267d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 267d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.10 · official $35.10 (match) · 128 history records