Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
53 0x5340…8a7f other 117 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$8
politics 18% −$5
sports 5% −$18
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.4% -22.6% 0% 0% -13.1%
≤30d 19 -5.4% -14.4% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 105 +0.2% -9.3% 12% 9% -9.6%
all 115 +0.2% -9.3% 11% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 8% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 8% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 8% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)115 / 117
History coverage96d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $29 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $83 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $76 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $195 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $702 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $284 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $102 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $50 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 17 $230 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 17 $225 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $419 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 11 $225 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $220 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $224 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $424 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $219 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $234 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $435 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $223 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $228 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $580 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 01 $27 $0 +1%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $212 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $233 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 28 $226 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $463 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $427 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $219 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $406 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $455 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 6m
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $70 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $10 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 6d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 6d
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? BUY No 99¢ $98 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 10d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 16d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 16d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 17d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $49 18d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $49 18d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.14 · official $168.14 (match) · 327 history records