Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:56:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5344…d7c2 crypto 707 markets active 6h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$450 (-14%) realized −$450 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate46%323W / 384L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day41.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$134
30 days−$545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$553
other 5% +$9
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 +11.3% +0.7% 58% 50% -13.2%
≤30d 707 -19.0% -26.7% 46% 29% -27.5%
≤90d 707 -19.0% -26.7% 46% 29% -27.5%
all 707 -19.0% -26.7% 46% 29% -27.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 29% -27.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 27% -34.4%
15% -40.1% 19% -40.7%
20% -46.0% 15% -46.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$450
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses323 / 384
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)707 / 707
History coverage23d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day41.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 707 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$4 +128%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$7 +239%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$7 +252%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +70%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$8 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$25 +1403%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 21h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1684 history records